Two Hour Buffett Interview, Loss Aversion, Ted Weschler, Toll Bridges, And Amit Wadhwaney on Martin Whitman

I am almost done with Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets and would highly recommend it to everyone.  It covers topics from history, politics, and the financial markets and gives you reasons why you should be skeptical of people in power and especially people who say their ideas will help better the world.

I should finish up the book today and then tomorrow it is off to researching companies again.  While I love learning new things and seeing ideas that I haven’t thought about before, I have become kind of a 10-K junkie and even though I have found the book very interesting and entertaining, my mind has been continually wandering thinking about companies I want to research and how to expand my knowledge about companies.  I think I am sick :).

Anyways on to the links.

Warren Buffet Two Hour Interview On CNBC from Valuewalk.

Selling Stock At A Loss and Our Loss Aversion Bias.  Very important lessons for investors.

Ted Weschler Rise From Grace Leads to Role Advising Buffett.  This is from Bloomberg and profiles Mr. Weschler, one of the people who might take over for Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway after Buffett steps down.

I Don’t Want To Be  A Toll Bridge, I Want To Be Its Meaning.  This is a very interesting article from the Fundoo Professor.  This is about Buffet’s metaphor about how he wants to invest in toll bridges, pay special attention to the discussion in the comments section as well.

Amit Wadhwaney on Martin Whitman.  This is an interview of Mr. Wadhwaney about Third Avenue Funds approach to investing.

Weekend Reading Links: Klarman, Munger, Buffett, Valuation, and Learning

The new company I was researching turned out to be another bust after valuation.  I found the Australian company to be in a range from fairly valued at the high end of my intrinsic value estimate to overvalued by as much as 70% from my low estimates of value and have decided to not do any further research on it at this time, especially since its margins were not very good either.

For now, I am going to be reading some books over the coming days and then it’s back to searching for more companies to research.

Seth Klarman On Leadership.  This video is from ValuePrax and contains some very valuable insights from the reclusive Klarman.

Charlie Munger Lecture at the Harvard-Westlake School.  This interview is from Santangel’s Review and contains Mungers thoughts on the recent financial crisis.

Alice Schroeder On How Buffett Values a Business and Invests.  This is yet another article from Greg Speicher that contain Ms. Schroeder’s thoughts on how Warren Buffett looks at business.

Valuation: Valuing Growth and the Petersburg Paradox.  This is from Csinvesting and the page also has some links to papers that talk about different things valuation related.

I Learned To Speak Four Languages In a Few Years: Here’s how.  This is a write up from LifeHacker about the techniques that helped the author learn four languages in a relatively short amount of time.  This is fascinating to me because I have always wanted to learn a new language and have recently started learning a bit of Spanish.

Portfolio Update And Links From Old School Value, Charlie Munger, Greenbackd, and PsychCentral

Today I am going to value the company I have been researching to see if it warrants further research and a full article, I will update you about what I figure out.

I also sold out of my entire position in Vodafone (VOD).  My valuations and brief analysis can be found in this post from last month.

I bought Vodafone before doing valuations of any kind and only minor research and again I paid the price.  I bought at too high of a price in my estimate and it would have been very difficult to make money due to my high cost basis.  In the link above I also give some other reasons why I was thinking about selling, which are ultimately why I decided to sell my entire portion of the company.  I sold my stake in Vodafone up about 2% after commissions.

That brings the cash position in my portfolio up to 17% and for now I am going to hold onto it and will let you know when I redeploy some of the cash I have built up.

To the links.

Two links from Old School Value; the first one is How The Cash Conversion Cycle Can Help You Pick Winners and Losers.  The second gives you 52 Techniques to Spot Fraud.  Both contain extremely important lessons.

How Reading Lights Up Your Mind is from Psych Central about the effects reading has on your brain, very fascinating.

Charlie Munger on Google’s Moat-It’s Huge…Probably Widest He’s Ever Seen is another great post from Greg Speicher’s blog.

Greenbackd on Hunting Endangered Species.  The link contains his 15 page strategy paper on “Hunting Endangered Species: Investing in the Market for Corporate Control.”  The link also contains links to some of his other papers.

The Next Warren Buffett’s, Being Great At Anything, Beating The Show Offs, Bruce Bekowitz, and A Value Investors Journey

 The Next Warren Buffett’s

Are These The New Warren Buffett’s? Is an article from Fortune in October of 1989 where they profile 12 investors who they expect to do well in the future.  It is amazing how right they were as the list is comprised of current value investing heavyweights.

Being Great At Anything

Six Keys To Being Great At Anything is an article from Harvard Business Review on deliberate practice.  The article also lists some books at the end of the article about the subject.

Harvard Business Review wordmark
Harvard Business Review wordmark (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Beating The Show Offs

Beating The Show-offs is an article from the Reformed Broker where he gives reasons why showing off when investing and/or managing other people’s money is bad, and how to beat the show-offs.

Bruce Berkowitz says Fairholme can produce 20% CAGR returns going forward

Bruce Berkowitz: Fairholme Can Produce 20% CAGR Returns is from ValueWalk which has an interview with Bruce Berkowitz and has his thoughts on many things investing related, including some of his funds holdings.

The McValue Portfolio Newsletters

The McValue Portfolio Newsletters are precursor quarterly newsletters from a fellow value investor before he decided to open his own investment fund GreensKeeper Asset Management.

The second link has his newsletters since opening his own fund.  Opening a hedge fund/partnership is exactly what I plan to do when my health gets better.  So I liked to see the progression of his newsletters and thought processes.


Valuations: Stanley Furniture $STLY, Pure Asset Play On A Bad Business

Normally I only invest in two kinds of companies:

  1. Companies that have some kind of competitive advantages: Intel, Altria, Philip Morris, and to some extent Core Molding Technologies are a few of the examples.
  2. Spin off opportunities like Dole and Vivendi where the companies have assets that they could sell or spin off to unlock value in the company.

Stanley Furniture (STLY) does not fall into either of those categories as it is unprofitable on an operating basis, has no competitive advantages, has no hidden assets that hold underlying value, and it has been relying on the government at least in part, to stay in business.  Stanley is a hardwood furniture manufacturer that caters to high-end buyers as almost all of the items it sells retail for more than $1000.  It sells its wares online and through various retailers such as Nebraska Furniture Mart and smaller family owned furniture stores.

The company was very hard hit starting in 2005 and its decline furthered during the recession.  To this day Stanley Furniture is still struggling and since 2005 it has had to sell most of its buildings, rework its entire business structure, and fire employees just to stay afloat.  The company has been unprofitable on an operating income basis since 2008 and has only been able to stay viable as a company due to its restructuring and special income from anti-dumping legislation, which I will explain later.  So why would I be interested in a company like this, which is something that I normally would discard right off the bat?

What initially got me interested in Stanley is that I noticed that it currently has about $45 million in cash and short term investments, while its market cap is around $65 million, so the company appears to be covered on the downside if things deteriorate further.  At least that is what I originally thought.

I went back and read all of its annual reports since 2005, when the company’s problems started, to see what caused the problems, if the company could regain a portion of its former profitability, and how it has been managing its cash since that time, and to see where it’s recent $40 million infusions of cash came from.

What I found is what I would assume a lot of companies went through from 2005-2009: It got over-optimistic about the future which led to inefficiency, which led to having to restructure its operations and fire workers, which led to burning through a lot of cash in that time period and building debt, and looked like it was heading towards bankruptcy until it received $40 million in funds from CDSOA anti-dumping legislation.

The Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act (CDSOA) can be explained in these two links for those who would like to learn about the legislation.  US-China Antidumping Laws and The US Antidumping Law: Rhetoric Versus Reality.  For those who would rather watch paint dry I will do my best to explain the basics of the antidumping policy.

My understanding of the law is that it was passed with the clear cut intent of stopping foreign countries from INTENTIONALLY harming United States companies by “dumping” its products in the US at below cost to put its US competitors out of business.  The law now has turned into a convoluted mess where foreign companies can be made to pay duties on items it sells in the US even if the US cannot prove that it is intentionally undercutting prices.  In other words, the legislation has turned into a form of trade protectionism where the US has been accused of breaking international law.  The money that is taken from the foreign company as “duties,” is given to US companies that have been affected by the supposed dumping infractions.

Why is the above important?  The law is being used now to keep badly run US businesses afloat, keep foreign competition out of certain industries who want to lower prices, one of which is the wood furniture market, and keep prices artificially high for the companies, in spite of the consumers, so that these poorly run businesses like STLY can stay in business.  Stanley has received more than $60 million of these duties in recent years with a big chunk of $40 million paid out in the last few months.  Without these funds Stanley would have probably not been able to stay viable as a business, would not have been able to pay off all of its debt, and most likely would have gone bankrupt.  On top of that STLY stated in its second quarter 2012 quarterly report that there is a small chance they will have to pay back a portion or all of the $40 million it received because the claims have not been fully resolved.  Although I have not been able to find confirmation of this yet, it appears that if Stanley does get to keep the $40 million it will most likely be one of the last payments it receives of this kind as the law has since been repealed and no dumping after October 1st, 2007 is considered.  Payments are still being fought over in court from before October 1, 2007, however which is what the $40 million payment in the last few months is from.

Knowing the above let’s get to the evaluations.

These evaluations were done by me, using my estimates and are not a recommendation to buy any stock, in any of the companies mentioned. Do your own homework.

All numbers are in millions of U.S. dollars, except per share information unless otherwise noted. Valuations were done using 2011 10K and second quarter 2012 10Q.

Assets: Book Value: Reproduction Value:
Current Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Restricted Cash 25 23
Short Term Investments 20 20
Accounts Receivable (Net) 11.9 10
Inventories 31.5 16
Prepaid Expenses 3.3 1
Other Current Assets 0.6 0
Total Current Assets 92.3 70
PP&E Net 20 10
Other Long Term Assets 3 1
Total Assets 115.3 81

Reproduction Value:

With full $40 million of cash from CDSOA settlement.

  • 81/14.5=$5.59 per share.

Using $20 million from CDSOA settlement.

  • 61/14.5=$4.21 per share.

Using 0 from CDSOA settlement.

  • 41/14.5=$2.83 per share.

Book Value Per Share

  • Current with full $40 million CDSOA money=$6.28 per share.
  • With only $20 million in CDSOA money=$4.89 per share.
  • With 0 money from CDSOA=$3.51 per share.

I did other valuations and the research that I normally do but since this is a bad business I wanted to just focus on its assets and see what kind of value they held.

Even with its restructuring Stanley is still an unprofitable company on an operating basis and I do not see a clear path to its former glory unless the economy as a whole boom again, which is the last time the company was doing well.  Since the economy is not booming, or showing any signs of potentially booming,  this company has been burning through cash at a high rate over the last several years, and has only been kept alive by the CDSOA payments that appear to be ending, I would use the $2.83 per share reproduction value as the price that I would be comfortable buying at.  At that price, you are essentially just paying for the assets with everything else coming for free and the risk would be very much minimized. However, I do think that I can find much better businesses to invest my money in and would still probably not buy at that price. The current share price is $4.32 per share.

I was excited to step outside of my normal box, and trying something different in the hopes of finding another investment.  Turns out this company is most likely a bust, but at least this was a learning experience.