Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 6 – Goodwill, Impairment, Acquisitions, Destroying Value, and More.

Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 6 – Goodwill, Impairment, Acquisitions, Destroying Value, and More.

Last week I announced we were going to begin doing a real-world case study on Constellation Brands – Stock Ticker STZ.

Well, after releasing this post, my team reminded me that there was actually a preliminary analysis my client did before this one. So before we get to the STZ case study, we’re doing to take a detour to talk about Canopy Growth Corp –  Stock Ticker WEED.

I didn’t want to skip this one because there’s a lot of context and talk in this discussion that we don’t necessarily go over in the later training sessions because we’ve already talked about them.

This post is a continuation of the last posts in this ongoing case study.  All parts thus far are below:

Below is his unedited preliminary analysis for reference – without any of my comments – for you to get a  look at.

Canopy Growth Corp – WEED

***

WEED – Canopy Growth Corp (Canadian Company)

All numbers are in millions of CAD unless noted otherwise.

  • FY Ends March 31st, 2017
  • 3,404 market cap (medium)
  • N/A dividend yield.
  • P/B TTM = 4.92
  • TTM Operating Margin is -39.2 and has somewhat increased over last 2 years.
    • 5 year average OM is N/A
  • Share count has done increased from 77 to 119 from FY16 to FY17. Current TTM is 149m.  Statement of shareholder’s equity??
  • Book value per share has increased from 1.34 to 1.55 from FY16 to FY17. Current TTM is 3.73.
  • Morningstar ROIC TTM is -6.58 and a little higher than the last 2 FY’s
    • 5 year average Morningstar ROIC is N/A
  • TTM ROE is -6.45 and a little higher than the last 2 FY’s
    • 5 year average ROE is N/A
  • TTM FCF/sales is -151 and we can’t tell any pattern. See con note on FCF
    • 5 year average FCF/sales is N/A
  • CCC: No info on the payable period (assume the product is cheap to grow) but DIO exploded on FY2017 to 5,494 days (FY2016 and 2015 avg is about 650 days). Research online says cannabis takes up to ½ year to grow so I would need much more investigation on why inventory takes so long to turnover.
  • EV=3,312
  • EV/EBIT is -73.6
  • EV/FCF is -37.6
  • EBIT/EV (earnings yield) -1.3%
  • FCF/EV (earnings yield) -2.6%

Cons

  • Young company – only about 3 years old after name change (used to be Tweed)
  • Note only balance sheet on Morningstar has FY2015 so we need to look at 10K for data.  We cannot really tell any direction with a 2/3 year old history
  • SG&A & Other are over 163% of Revenue
  • SG&A roughly decreasing and “Other” is increasing
  • Op Income and Margin are (-) but are generally decreasing over time
  • Outstanding shares are significantly increasing over time
  • FCF is increasingly negative as both op cash flow and CapEx are also both increasingly negative
  • Not much experience with Canadian companies
  • Goodwill and intangible assets exploded on FY2017
  • Regulation laws in Canada and USA
  • They bought a lot of companies in FY2016

Pros

  • Cash exploded in FY2017
  • FY2017 Cash & Equiv – Total Liabilities = $39m
  • Book value/share is generally increasing but only for last 3 years
  • Low Debt (also reflected by the ROE and ROIC being similar numbers)
  • Revenue is increasing over time
  • STZ bought about 10% interest in WEED.  Industry took notice and WEED most likely gained some legitimacy with large companies
  • COGS is only 23% of Revenue (doesn’t take much cost to grow product?)
  • High Working Capital Ratio = 9.8 but this high typically suggests either too much inventory or not investing excess cash…

***

In this video, we talk more about goodwill, impairment, acquisitions, companies destroying value, and more.

For some reason, when I talk the audio cuts out so I’ve added narration to the video above for context.

If you have any comments or questions, please post them in the comments section below and I’ll answer them.

I’d also love to see your preliminary analysis as well, so feel free to post these in the comments below.

If you’d like more information about the coaching program this client is in, go to this page.

For reference, he’s in the $ 10,000, year-long program, and this is only after 1 month of coaching, doing nine 1-hour training sessions via Skype.

P.S.  This analysis is based on the preliminary analysis template I developed over a number of years, and after evaluating thousands of companies.  If you’d like a copy of this to do your own preliminary analysis, you can get yours for free here.

P.P.S.  I put on a FREE webinar on last Thursday teaching The 3 Secrets That Have Helped Me Beat Buffett In The Stock Market, so you can possibly do the same.  If you’d like to sign up for FREE to view the replay of the webinar, you can do so here.

Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 3 – Book Recommendations And More

Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 3 – Book Recommendations, Power of Learning, and More

On Monday I announced we were going to begin doing a real-world case study on Constellation Brands – Stock Ticker STZ.

Well, after releasing this post, my team reminded me that there was actually a preliminary analysis my client did before this one. So before we get to the STZ case study, we’re doing to take a detour to talk about Canopy Growth Corp –  Stock Ticker WEED.

I didn’t want to skip this one because there’s a lot of context and talk in this discussion that we don’t necessarily go over in the later training sessions because we’ve already talked about them.

This post is a continuation of the last two posts in this ongoing case study.  Both parts are below:

Below is his unedited preliminary analysis for reference – without any of my comments – for you to get a  look at.

Canopy Growth Corp – WEED

***

WEED – Canopy Growth Corp (Canadian Company)

All numbers are in millions of CAD unless noted otherwise.

  • FY Ends March 31st, 2017
  • 3,404 market cap (medium)
  • N/A dividend yield.
  • P/B TTM = 4.92
  • TTM Operating Margin is -39.2 and has somewhat increased over last 2 years.
    • 5 year average OM is N/A
  • Share count has done increased from 77 to 119 from FY16 to FY17. Current TTM is 149m.  Statement of shareholder’s equity??
  • Book value per share has increased from 1.34 to 1.55 from FY16 to FY17. Current TTM is 3.73.
  • Morningstar ROIC TTM is -6.58 and a little higher than the last 2 FY’s
    • 5 year average Morningstar ROIC is N/A
  • TTM ROE is -6.45 and a little higher than the last 2 FY’s
    • 5 year average ROE is N/A
  • TTM FCF/sales is -151 and we can’t tell any pattern. See con note on FCF
    • 5 year average FCF/sales is N/A
  • CCC: No info on the payable period (assume the product is cheap to grow) but DIO exploded on FY2017 to 5,494 days (FY2016 and 2015 avg is about 650 days). Research online says cannabis takes up to ½ year to grow so I would need much more investigation on why inventory takes so long to turnover.
  • EV=3,312
  • EV/EBIT is -73.6
  • EV/FCF is -37.6
  • EBIT/EV (earnings yield) -1.3%
  • FCF/EV (earnings yield) -2.6%

Cons

  • Young company – only about 3 years old after name change (used to be Tweed)
  • Note only balance sheet on Morningstar has FY2015 so we need to look at 10K for data.  We cannot really tell any direction with a 2/3 year old history
  • SG&A & Other are over 163% of Revenue
  • SG&A roughly decreasing and “Other” is increasing
  • Op Income and Margin are (-) but are generally decreasing over time
  • Outstanding shares are significantly increasing over time
  • FCF is increasingly negative as both op cash flow and CapEx are also both increasingly negative
  • Not much experience with Canadian companies
  • Goodwill and intangible assets exploded on FY2017
  • Regulation laws in Canada and USA
  • They bought a lot of companies in FY2016

Pros

  • Cash exploded in FY2017
  • FY2017 Cash & Equiv – Total Liabilities = $39m
  • Book value/share is generally increasing but only for last 3 years
  • Low Debt (also reflected by the ROE and ROIC being similar numbers)
  • Revenue is increasing over time
  • STZ bought about 10% interest in WEED.  Industry took notice and WEED most likely gained some legitimacy with large companies
  • COGS is only 23% of Revenue (doesn’t take much cost to grow product?)
  • High Working Capital Ratio = 9.8 but this high typically suggests either too much inventory or not investing excess cash…

***

So, after going through the beginnings of this preliminary analysis process in part 1 on Wednesday, here is part 2 of this discussion below.

In this video, we took a short several minute break from analysis to talk about book recommendations, the power of learning, and much more.

For some reason, when I talk the audio cuts out so below each shorter video I’ve created a video where I’m rehashing what I told the client during our training session.

And my context with the missing sound in the above video here…

Again, as I say in the video,  I’m not sure why my sound cut out on the recording because he could hear me the entire time.  But all of my past videos are like this and we’ve just fixed the sound issue a few days ago, hopefully for good.  For now this is how I’ve got to improvise things.

If you have any comments or questions please post them in the comments section below and I’ll answer them.

I’d also love to see your preliminary analysis as well, so feel free to post these in the comments below.

If you’d like more information about the coaching program this client is in, go to this page.

For reference, he’s in the $ 10,000, year-long program, and this is only after 1 month of coaching, doing nine 1-hour training sessions via Skype.

P.S.  This analysis is based on the preliminary analysis template I developed over a number of years, and after evaluating thousands of companies.  If you’d like a copy of this to do your own preliminary analysis, you can get yours for free here.

P.P.S.  I put on a FREE webinar yesterday teaching The 3 Secrets That Have Helped Me Beat Buffett In The Stock Market, so you can possibly do the same.  If you’d like to sign up for FREE to view the replay of the webinar, you can do so here.

Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 2 – Release of Client’s 1st Preliminary Analysis

Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 2 – Release of Client’s 1st Preliminary Analysis

On Monday I announced we were going to begin doing a real-world case study on Constellation Brands – Stock Ticker STZ in this post here.

Well after releasing this post, my team reminded me that there was actually a preliminary analysis my client did before this one so before we get to the STZ case study we’re doing to take a detour to talk about Canopy Growth Corp –  Stock Ticker WEED.

I didn’t want to skip this one because there’s a lot of context and talk in this discussion that we don’t necessarily go over in the later training sessions because we’ve already talked about them.

Below is his unedited preliminary analysis – without any of my comments – for you to get a  look at.

Canopy Growth Corp – WEED

***

WEED – Canopy Growth Corp (Canadian Company)

All numbers are in millions of CAD unless noted otherwise.

  • FY Ends March 31st, 2017
  • 3,404 market cap (medium)
  • N/A dividend yield.
  • P/B TTM = 4.92
  • TTM Operating Margin is -39.2 and has somewhat increased over last 2 years.
    • 5 year average OM is N/A
  • Share count has done increased from 77 to 119 from FY16 to FY17. Current TTM is 149m.  Statement of shareholder’s equity??
  • Book value per share has increased from 1.34 to 1.55 from FY16 to FY17. Current TTM is 3.73.
  • Morningstar ROIC TTM is -6.58 and a little higher than the last 2 FY’s
    • 5 year average Morningstar ROIC is N/A
  • TTM ROE is -6.45 and a little higher than the last 2 FY’s
    • 5 year average ROE is N/A
  • TTM FCF/sales is -151 and we can’t tell any pattern. See con note on FCF
    • 5 year average FCF/sales is N/A
  • CCC: No info on the payable period (assume the product is cheap to grow) but DIO exploded on FY2017 to 5,494 days (FY2016 and 2015 avg is about 650 days). Research online says cannabis takes up to ½ year to grow so I would need much more investigation on why inventory takes so long to turnover.
  • EV=3,312
  • EV/EBIT is -73.6
  • EV/FCF is -37.6
  • EBIT/EV (earnings yield) -1.3%
  • FCF/EV (earnings yield) -2.6%

Cons

  • Young company – only about 3 years old after name change (used to be Tweed)
  • Note only balance sheet on Morningstar has FY2015 so we need to look at 10K for data.  We cannot really tell any direction with a 2/3 year old history
  • SG&A & Other are over 163% of Revenue
  • SG&A roughly decreasing and “Other” is increasing
  • Op Income and Margin are (-) but are generally decreasing over time
  • Outstanding shares are significantly increasing over time
  • FCF is increasingly negative as both op cash flow and CapEx are also both increasingly negative
  • Not much experience with Canadian companies
  • Goodwill and intangible assets exploded on FY2017
  • Regulation laws in Canada and USA
  • They bought a lot of companies in FY2016

Pros

  • Cash exploded in FY2017
  • FY2017 Cash & Equiv – Total Liabilities = $39m
  • Book value/share is generally increasing but only for last 3 years
  • Low Debt (also reflected by the ROE and ROIC being similar numbers)
  • Revenue is increasing over time
  • STZ bought about 10% interest in WEED.  Industry took notice and WEED most likely gained some legitimacy with large companies
  • COGS is only 23% of Revenue (doesn’t take much cost to grow product?)
  • High Working Capital Ratio = 9.8 but this high typically suggests either too much inventory or not investing excess cash…

***

And since I screwed up, I’m going to begin releasing my thoughts on this company today.

The video below is part one of our exclusive discussion from one of our coaching sessions about this company.

For some reason, when I talk, the audio cuts out so below each shorter video, I’ve created a video where I’m rehashing what I told the client during our training session.

And my context with the missing sound in the above video here…

Again, as I say in the video, I’m not sure why my sound cut out and since all of my past videos are like this – we’ve just fixed the sound issue today, hopefully for good – this is how I’ve got to improvise things.

What do you think of the preliminary analysis above?  Does it make for a possible good or bad investment?  Did he miss anything in his analysis?  What are the important points in the analysis above and why? What the hell is CCC?

I’ll begin answering the above questions and more on Friday.

If you have any comments or questions, please post them in the comments section below and I’ll answer them.

I’d also love to see your preliminary analysis as well, so feel free to post these in the comments below.

And if you’d like more information about the coaching program this client is in, go to this page.

For reference, he’s in the $ 10,000, year-long program, and this is only after 1 month of coaching via nine 1-hour training sessions via Skype.

P.S.  This analysis is based on the preliminary analysis template I developed over a number of years, and after evaluating thousands of companies.  If you’d like a copy of this to do your own preliminary analysis, you can get yours for free here.

P.P.S.  I’m putting on a FREE live webinar tomorrow at 12 PM EST teaching The 3 Secrets That Have Helped Me Beat Buffett In The Stock Market, so you can possibly do the same.  If you’d like to sign up for free to view the live webinar, you can do so here.

Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 1- Constellation Brands

Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 1 Constellation Brands

Years ago, I would spend hours researching one company on a preliminary basis so I could figure out if I wanted to do further research on it and possibly invest in it.

And I would do this full hours long process on a company no matter what I found out during the preliminary analysis.

Not only was this a massive waste of time spent researching companies I knew I wasn’t going to invest in, but this process only allowed me to go through one company on a preliminary basis in an hour or two.

With more than 20,000 companies available to research worldwide, I knew I needed to streamline this process a lot.

I needed to get rid of crap companies faster and evaluate more companies in a shorter time.

By doing these two things it would not only allow me to find potentially great investments faster but I’d also learn more industries and business models faster as well.

So out of necessity came my preliminary analysis checklist you can get by subscribing to Value Investing Journey for FREE here.

After developing this process I can now go through 5 – 10 companies in an hour and learn an immense amount about one company in just a few minutes.

Why am I telling you about all this?

Because one of my $10,000 coaching clients, in less than a month, went from minimal value investment knowledge to doing these full preliminary analysis on companies by himself.

He now knows what everything on the checklist means and he now wants to help others as he’s learning.  Here’s the kicker:

He graciously offered to post his first ever full preliminary analysis here on the Value Investing Journey blog so that not only can he get feedback from you to help him improve.  But also so that we could all help each other grow our value investing knowledge by doing real-world value investment case studies together.

The company he chose to evaluate is…

Constellation Brands – Stock Ticker STZ

Here’s the brief profile of Constellation Brands from its own company profile…

Simply put, we produce and market high-end beer and premium wine and spirits brands that consumers love.

Whether at home relaxing, in a restaurant marking a special occasion – or at a concert, a ball game or a day at the beach – our brands are front and center.

We understand our consumers and strive, not only to meet their current drinking preferences, but to anticipate and respond to what they’ll be reaching for next.

If you’d like to participate in this case study yourself all you’ll need is the exclusive Value Investing Journey Preliminary Analysis Checklist you can get for FREE here and Internet access to go to Morningstar.com.  That’s it.

You’ll learn best if you do your preliminary analysis before Wednesday when I release the preliminary analysis he did on this company.

And on Friday, I’m going to release part one of our exclusive training session explaining why everything is on the preliminary analysis worksheet and more importantly what everything means in terms of analyzing the company.

If you have any comments or questions please post them in the comments section below and I’ll answer them.

I’d also love to see your preliminary analysis as well so feel free to post these in the comments below.

Conclusion and Further Recommended Reading – On Float Part 7

Conclusion and Further Recommended Reading – On Float Part 7

This post is the last one in the On Float series started way back on February 2nd 2016.  Yes that date is correct.  I posted the first article in this series Charlie Munger On Deferred Tax Liabilities and Intrinsic Value – On Float Part 1 seven months ago.

If I’ve done my job well in the seven parts, more than 12,000 words, and 60 pages of content including this post we all should know the following now.

  • What float is.
  • Why it’s important.
  • How companies can use float as positive leverage.
  • How Buffett got so rich using float.
  • How to find float on a balance sheet.
  • How to evaluate float.
  • How float affects a company and its margins.
  • Maybe the most important thing why float affects a company and its margins.
  • How float affects a company’s value.
  • And answered the question is float ever bad?

But as with any great thing in life and investing there’s always more to learn and improve on.  Knowing this I’ve included the things I’ve learned the bulk about investment float from below.

Also make sure to read the comments sections of any of the following as well as there is usually great commentary there on the specifics of float.

All the following are in no particular order.  Have been added to the Recommended Reading and Viewing page.  And are designated as MUST READS!!! on the Recommended Reading and Viewing page.

My posts about float.

I specifically want to thank Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Professor Sanjay Bakshi, and The Brooklyn Investor for sharing their knowledge on float.  Without their knowledge none of my posts would have happened.

Reading the above things and taking notes where necessary will help you further understand the nuances of float.

But if you really want to continue learning about float make sure to read company filings, take notes, analyze the company fully, analyze its float, and value the company.

Doing this over and over – like with almost everything in value investing – not only ingrains these concepts in your thought processes.  But the more you do it the more nuances you’ll spot.  And the more intimate knowledge you’ll have of investment float and its immense power.

If I’ve done my job well over the last 60 pages we should now have a huge advantage over other investors who either don’t know what investment float is.  Don’t know how to value and evaluate it.  Or won’t take the time to learn how to do these things.

But as always there’s always more to learn and improve on so on to the next one…

Please leave any comments, questions, or concerns you have about float in the comments section below.

***

Remember if you want access to my exclusive notes and preliminary analysis you need to subscribe for free to Value Investing Journey.  And this isn’t all you’ll get when you subscribe either.

You also gain access to three gifts.  And a 50% discount on a year-long Press On Research subscription.  Where my exclusive stock picks are evaluated and have crushed the market over the last four years.