Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 7 – Goodwill, Dilution, And The Cash Conversion Cycle

Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 7 – Goodwill, Dilution, And The Cash Conversion Cycle

Last week I announced we were going to begin doing a real-world case study on Constellation Brands – Stock Ticker STZ.

Well, after releasing this post, my team reminded me that there was actually a preliminary analysis my client did before this one. So before we get to the STZ case study, we’re doing to take a detour to talk about Canopy Growth Corp –  Stock Ticker WEED.

I didn’t want to skip this one because there’s a lot of context and talk in this discussion that we don’t necessarily go over in the later training sessions because we’ve already talked about them.

This post is a continuation of the prior posts in this ongoing case study.  All parts thus far are below:

Below is his unedited preliminary analysis for reference – without any of my comments – for you to get a  look at.

Canopy Growth Corp – WEED

***

WEED – Canopy Growth Corp (Canadian Company)

All numbers are in millions of CAD unless noted otherwise.

  • FY Ends March 31st, 2017
  • 3,404 market cap (medium)
  • N/A dividend yield.
  • P/B TTM = 4.92
  • TTM Operating Margin is -39.2 and has somewhat increased over last 2 years.
    • 5 year average OM is N/A
  • Share count has done increased from 77 to 119 from FY16 to FY17. Current TTM is 149m.  Statement of shareholder’s equity??
  • Book value per share has increased from 1.34 to 1.55 from FY16 to FY17. Current TTM is 3.73.
  • Morningstar ROIC TTM is -6.58 and a little higher than the last 2 FY’s
    • 5 year average Morningstar ROIC is N/A
  • TTM ROE is -6.45 and a little higher than the last 2 FY’s
    • 5 year average ROE is N/A
  • TTM FCF/sales is -151 and we can’t tell any pattern. See con note on FCF
    • 5 year average FCF/sales is N/A
  • CCC: No info on the payable period (assume the product is cheap to grow) but DIO exploded on FY2017 to 5,494 days (FY2016 and 2015 avg is about 650 days). Research online says cannabis takes up to ½ year to grow so I would need much more investigation on why inventory takes so long to turnover.
  • EV=3,312
  • EV/EBIT is -73.6
  • EV/FCF is -37.6
  • EBIT/EV (earnings yield) -1.3%
  • FCF/EV (earnings yield) -2.6%

Cons

  • Young company – only about 3 years old after name change (used to be Tweed)
  • Note only balance sheet on Morningstar has FY2015 so we need to look at 10K for data.  We cannot really tell any direction with a 2/3 year old history
  • SG&A & Other are over 163% of Revenue
  • SG&A roughly decreasing and “Other” is increasing
  • Op Income and Margin are (-) but are generally decreasing over time
  • Outstanding shares are significantly increasing over time
  • FCF is increasingly negative as both op cash flow and CapEx are also both increasingly negative
  • Not much experience with Canadian companies
  • Goodwill and intangible assets exploded on FY2017
  • Regulation laws in Canada and USA
  • They bought a lot of companies in FY2016

Pros

  • Cash exploded in FY2017
  • FY2017 Cash & Equiv – Total Liabilities = $39
  • Book value/share is generally increasing but only for last 3 years
  • Low Debt (also reflected by the ROE and ROIC being similar numbers)
  • Revenue is increasing over time
  • STZ bought about 10% interest in WEED.  Industry took notice and WEED most likely gained some legitimacy with large companies
  • COGS is only 23% of Revenue (doesn’t take much cost to grow product?)
  • High Working Capital Ratio = 9.8 but this high typically suggests either too much inventory or not investing excess cash…

***

In this video, we talked more about goodwill, dilution, and began to talk about the all-important cash conversion cycle.

For some reason, when I talk, the audio cuts out so I’ve added narration to the video above for context.

If you have any comments or questions, please post them in the comments section below and I’ll answer them.

I’d also love to see your preliminary analysis as well, so feel free to post these in the comments below.

If you’d like more information about the coaching program this client is in, go to this page.

For reference, he’s in the $ 10,000 year-long program, and this is only after 1 month of coaching, doing nine 1 hour training sessions via Skype.

P.S. This analysis is based on the preliminary analysis template I developed over a number of years, and after evaluating thousands of companies. If you’d like a copy of this to do your own preliminary analysis you can get yours for free here.

P.P.S. I put on a FREE webinar last Thursday, teaching The 3 Secrets That Have Helped Me Beat Buffett In The Stock Market, so you can possibly do the same. If you’d like to sign up for FREE to view the replay of the webinar, you can do so here.

Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 6 – Goodwill, Impairment, Acquisitions, Destroying Value, and More.

Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 6 – Goodwill, Impairment, Acquisitions, Destroying Value, and More.

Last week I announced we were going to begin doing a real-world case study on Constellation Brands – Stock Ticker STZ.

Well, after releasing this post, my team reminded me that there was actually a preliminary analysis my client did before this one. So before we get to the STZ case study, we’re doing to take a detour to talk about Canopy Growth Corp –  Stock Ticker WEED.

I didn’t want to skip this one because there’s a lot of context and talk in this discussion that we don’t necessarily go over in the later training sessions because we’ve already talked about them.

This post is a continuation of the last posts in this ongoing case study.  All parts thus far are below:

Below is his unedited preliminary analysis for reference – without any of my comments – for you to get a  look at.

Canopy Growth Corp – WEED

***

WEED – Canopy Growth Corp (Canadian Company)

All numbers are in millions of CAD unless noted otherwise.

  • FY Ends March 31st, 2017
  • 3,404 market cap (medium)
  • N/A dividend yield.
  • P/B TTM = 4.92
  • TTM Operating Margin is -39.2 and has somewhat increased over last 2 years.
    • 5 year average OM is N/A
  • Share count has done increased from 77 to 119 from FY16 to FY17. Current TTM is 149m.  Statement of shareholder’s equity??
  • Book value per share has increased from 1.34 to 1.55 from FY16 to FY17. Current TTM is 3.73.
  • Morningstar ROIC TTM is -6.58 and a little higher than the last 2 FY’s
    • 5 year average Morningstar ROIC is N/A
  • TTM ROE is -6.45 and a little higher than the last 2 FY’s
    • 5 year average ROE is N/A
  • TTM FCF/sales is -151 and we can’t tell any pattern. See con note on FCF
    • 5 year average FCF/sales is N/A
  • CCC: No info on the payable period (assume the product is cheap to grow) but DIO exploded on FY2017 to 5,494 days (FY2016 and 2015 avg is about 650 days). Research online says cannabis takes up to ½ year to grow so I would need much more investigation on why inventory takes so long to turnover.
  • EV=3,312
  • EV/EBIT is -73.6
  • EV/FCF is -37.6
  • EBIT/EV (earnings yield) -1.3%
  • FCF/EV (earnings yield) -2.6%

Cons

  • Young company – only about 3 years old after name change (used to be Tweed)
  • Note only balance sheet on Morningstar has FY2015 so we need to look at 10K for data.  We cannot really tell any direction with a 2/3 year old history
  • SG&A & Other are over 163% of Revenue
  • SG&A roughly decreasing and “Other” is increasing
  • Op Income and Margin are (-) but are generally decreasing over time
  • Outstanding shares are significantly increasing over time
  • FCF is increasingly negative as both op cash flow and CapEx are also both increasingly negative
  • Not much experience with Canadian companies
  • Goodwill and intangible assets exploded on FY2017
  • Regulation laws in Canada and USA
  • They bought a lot of companies in FY2016

Pros

  • Cash exploded in FY2017
  • FY2017 Cash & Equiv – Total Liabilities = $39m
  • Book value/share is generally increasing but only for last 3 years
  • Low Debt (also reflected by the ROE and ROIC being similar numbers)
  • Revenue is increasing over time
  • STZ bought about 10% interest in WEED.  Industry took notice and WEED most likely gained some legitimacy with large companies
  • COGS is only 23% of Revenue (doesn’t take much cost to grow product?)
  • High Working Capital Ratio = 9.8 but this high typically suggests either too much inventory or not investing excess cash…

***

In this video, we talk more about goodwill, impairment, acquisitions, companies destroying value, and more.

For some reason, when I talk the audio cuts out so I’ve added narration to the video above for context.

If you have any comments or questions, please post them in the comments section below and I’ll answer them.

I’d also love to see your preliminary analysis as well, so feel free to post these in the comments below.

If you’d like more information about the coaching program this client is in, go to this page.

For reference, he’s in the $ 10,000, year-long program, and this is only after 1 month of coaching, doing nine 1-hour training sessions via Skype.

P.S.  This analysis is based on the preliminary analysis template I developed over a number of years, and after evaluating thousands of companies.  If you’d like a copy of this to do your own preliminary analysis, you can get yours for free here.

P.P.S.  I put on a FREE webinar on last Thursday teaching The 3 Secrets That Have Helped Me Beat Buffett In The Stock Market, so you can possibly do the same.  If you’d like to sign up for FREE to view the replay of the webinar, you can do so here.

Free Cash Conversion Cycle Training Video

Free Cash Conversion Cycle Training Video

Other than some minor editing below for clarity, this is the transcript from the beginning of the cash conversion cycle training video which is further below.

Now we’re going to talk about the cash conversion cycle…

Again, this is something we’ve talked about already a little bit and why it’s so important but we’ll continue talking about this here on a preliminary basis.

The first thing I noticed here is the huge massive jump in this number since 2007 from 216 days to 600.3 days in the trailing twelve months or a rise of 64% in that time.

That is scary…

I make notes of everything I do so I don’t have to rely on my memory in the past or in the future when I’m doing my analysis.

I don’t want to rely on any guessing I want to rely on hard facts and what I was thinking as I was researching the company.

We’ve already talked about this a little bit but it such an important concept I’m going to continue going over it again and again.

Hopefully, everything begins to make more sense the more we talk about it and the more you learn about it in future training as well.

This number is one of the most important numbers I look at on preliminary basis like we talked about the other day.

Why?

Because with this one number I can tell the company is having a hard time selling its products.

This means it’s taking a long time for them to get paid by customers.

This leads to having a hard time paying suppliers and that their inventory may be overvalued and need to be written down or off at some point.

And this all could affect the company’s balance sheet strength and valuation down the road.

None of these are good.

I can tell this from comparing the first number of days in 2007 to the second number of days in the trailing twelve month period.

In most cases, I go back 5 years but this one is such a huge jump – almost triple – I went back 10 years.

***

You can watch the full video below…

Or if you’d like to learn more about the Cash Conversion Cycle go to the prior link.

P.S.  If you’d like to get one on one training like this yourself go to the following link before all 10 full-time spaces are filled – Value Investing Journey Coaching, Training, and Mentorship Programs.

P.P.S  If you want to get all content like this as it releases, five free gifts, and exclusive content make sure to subscribe to Value Investing Journey for free here.

Launch Of The Value Investment Coaching Program

Launch Of The Value Investment Coaching Program

I’ve thought about this program for years, have mentored and taught dozens of people over the last several years – thousands if you count those who’ve read How To Value Invest – but have not had time to officially launch a coaching program until now…

Today I’m writing you to announce the launch of the Rivera Holdings LLC. and Value Investing Journey – Value Investment Coaching Program.  While just the beginning – this is the culmination of years of thought and planning.

We’ll continue making improvements as we continue on this journey together, but I’m ecstatic today to announce the official release of this program.

There is some brief info about the program below.  But to see full information and sign up for any of the programs go to the following page – Value Investment Coaching Program.

***

Value Investment Coaching Program

So you’re interested in becoming a better value investor so you can manage your own investments or further your career.  But you’re stuck, not progressing, and beginning to get frustrated and don’t know what your next step should be…

I’ve been there…

Spending several hours, days, or months in this state is not only destructive to your progress but also your psyche.

If you stay in this state for too long the frustration will become too great and you’re likely to give up on becoming an excellent value investor.

What do the greats do when they’re stuck and want to go to the next level?

They work with a coach, find a mentor, and train.

Even the great Michael Jordan as illustrated by the quote below admits that without his coach Phil Jackson he wouldn’t have ended up as great of a player as he did.

So Why Don’t You Have A Coach or Mentor?

If the greatest athletes in the world have coaches and mentors, and increasingly the titans of business do as well, why don’t you have or think you need a coach?

If you’re looking for a mentor or coach to help point you in the right direction in business and life and help get you to the next level why haven’t you reached out to them?

Maybe you’re like me when I started and feel you don’t have the connections, network, or resources to reach out to someone like this.

When I began learning about value investing I couldn’t go to college or get a “normal” job due to severe health issues.

And none of my family, friends, or connections had any knowledge about value investing so I had to learn everything myself.

This led to years of anger, frustration, and lost time that I can never have back.

But I can now help you avoid that same fate…

I’m writing this message today to announce the opening of the Rivera Holdings LLC. and Value Investing Journey – Value Investment Coaching Program