Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 4 – Operating Margin And SG&A

Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 4 – Operating Margin and SG&A

Last week, I announced we were going to begin doing a real-world case study on Constellation Brands – Stock Ticker STZ.

Well, after releasing this post, my team reminded me that there was actually a preliminary analysis my client did before this one. So before we get to the STZ case study, we’re doing to take a detour to talk about Canopy Growth Corp –  Stock Ticker WEED.

I didn’t want to skip this one because there’s a lot of context and talk in this discussion that we don’t necessarily go over in the later training sessions because we’ve already talked about them.

This post is a continuation of the last posts in this ongoing case study.  All other parts are below:

Below is his unedited preliminary analysis for reference – without any of my comments – for you to get a  look at.

Canopy Growth Corp – WEED

***

WEED – Canopy Growth Corp (Canadian Company)

All numbers are in millions of CAD unless noted otherwise.

  • FY Ends March 31st, 2017
  • 3,404 market cap (medium)
  • N/A dividend yield.
  • P/B TTM = 4.92
  • TTM Operating Margin is -39.2 and has somewhat increased over last 2 years.
    • 5 year average OM is N/A
  • Share count has done increased from 77 to 119 from FY16 to FY17. Current TTM is 149m.  Statement of shareholder’s equity??
  • Book value per share has increased from 1.34 to 1.55 from FY16 to FY17. Current TTM is 3.73.
  • Morningstar ROIC TTM is -6.58 and a little higher than the last 2 FY’s
    • 5 year average Morningstar ROIC is N/A
  • TTM ROE is -6.45 and a little higher than the last 2 FY’s
    • 5 year average ROE is N/A
  • TTM FCF/sales is -151 and we can’t tell any pattern. See con note on FCF
    • 5 year average FCF/sales is N/A
  • CCC: No info on the payable period (assume the product is cheap to grow) but DIO exploded on FY2017 to 5,494 days (FY2016 and 2015 avg is about 650 days). Research online says cannabis takes up to ½ year to grow so I would need much more investigation on why inventory takes so long to turnover.
  • EV=3,312
  • EV/EBIT is -73.6
  • EV/FCF is -37.6
  • EBIT/EV (earnings yield) -1.3%
  • FCF/EV (earnings yield) -2.6%

Cons

  • Young company – only about 3 years old after name change (used to be Tweed)
  • Note only balance sheet on Morningstar has FY2015 so we need to look at 10K for data.  We cannot really tell any direction with a 2/3 year old history
  • SG&A & Other are over 163% of Revenue
  • SG&A roughly decreasing and “Other” is increasing
  • Op Income and Margin are (-) but are generally decreasing over time
  • Outstanding shares are significantly increasing over time
  • FCF is increasingly negative as both op cash flow and CapEx are also both increasingly negative
  • Not much experience with Canadian companies
  • Goodwill and intangible assets exploded on FY2017
  • Regulation laws in Canada and USA
  • They bought a lot of companies in FY2016

Pros

  • Cash exploded in FY2017
  • FY2017 Cash & Equiv – Total Liabilities = $39m
  • Book value/share is generally increasing but only for last 3 years
  • Low Debt (also reflected by the ROE and ROIC being similar numbers)
  • Revenue is increasing over time
  • STZ bought about 10% interest in WEED.  Industry took notice and WEED most likely gained some legitimacy with large companies
  • COGS is only 23% of Revenue (doesn’t take much cost to grow product?)
  • High Working Capital Ratio = 9.8 but this high typically suggests either too much inventory or not investing excess cash…

***

So, after going through the beginning’s of this preliminary analysis process in part 1 and 2 last week, here is part 3.

In this video, we talk about operating margin, selling general and administrative costs, and IPO’s.

For some reason, when I talk the audio cuts out so I’ve added narration to the video above for context.

If you have any comments or questions, please post them in the comments section below and I’ll answer them.

I’d also love to see your preliminary analysis as well, so feel free to post these in the comments below.

If you’d like more information about the coaching program this client is in, go to this page.

For reference, he’s in the $ 10,000, year-long program and this is only after 1 month of coaching, doing nine 1-hour training sessions via Skype.

P.S.  This analysis is based on the preliminary analysis template I developed over a number of years, and after evaluating thousands of companies.  If you’d like a copy of this to do your own preliminary analysis, you can get yours for free here.

P.P.S.  I put on a FREE webinar on Thursday teaching The 3 Secrets That Have Helped Me Beat Buffett In The Stock Market, so you can possibly do the same.  If you’d like to sign up for FREE to view the replay of the webinar, you can do so here.

Does Value Investing Work Anywhere In The World?

Does Value Investing Work Anywhere In The World?

I’ve gotten the above question a TON lately.  So I wanted to answer it for you in the short video below.

In short for those who don’t want to watch the 9-minute video…

  • Yes, value investing SHOULD work anywhere in the world…
  • But, there are places it doesn’t for specific reasons.
  • And there are times where it works better and worse than others.

I talk about the first two things above in the video but forgot to talk about the last one so I’ll do that in the next episode.

And something else I forgot to mention in the above video is that the company HAS to have financial statements in English as well.

Why?

Because while I wouldn’t mind trusting Google Translate when it comes to works of fiction where I can miss a few words here and there.

When it comes to a technical document like financial reports I read every single word.  And need to know that those words are correct and not just Google Translate or some algorithm guessing.

Below is a brief summary of some of the other things I talk about in the video above.

  • An exception proving the rule above
  • Companies selling at 70% net cash.
  • Countries where I’ve talked with other investors from around the world.
  • Fat pitches.
  • 23 countries represented on my watchlist.
  • And more.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on this topic in the comments below because I know MOST investors and value investors only focus on the United States so I’m in the minority here.

P.S.  I’d love your help naming our new podcast/vlog…  If you have a great name please send it to valueinvestingjourneyteam@gmail.com with the Subject Line of Name For Your Podcast/Vlog so my team knows what the message is about.

P.P.S  If you want to get every post like this in the future please subscribe for free here.

Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 2 – Release of Client’s 1st Preliminary Analysis

Preliminary Analysis Case Study #1 Part 2 – Release of Client’s 1st Preliminary Analysis

On Monday I announced we were going to begin doing a real-world case study on Constellation Brands – Stock Ticker STZ in this post here.

Well after releasing this post, my team reminded me that there was actually a preliminary analysis my client did before this one so before we get to the STZ case study we’re doing to take a detour to talk about Canopy Growth Corp –  Stock Ticker WEED.

I didn’t want to skip this one because there’s a lot of context and talk in this discussion that we don’t necessarily go over in the later training sessions because we’ve already talked about them.

Below is his unedited preliminary analysis – without any of my comments – for you to get a  look at.

Canopy Growth Corp – WEED

***

WEED – Canopy Growth Corp (Canadian Company)

All numbers are in millions of CAD unless noted otherwise.

  • FY Ends March 31st, 2017
  • 3,404 market cap (medium)
  • N/A dividend yield.
  • P/B TTM = 4.92
  • TTM Operating Margin is -39.2 and has somewhat increased over last 2 years.
    • 5 year average OM is N/A
  • Share count has done increased from 77 to 119 from FY16 to FY17. Current TTM is 149m.  Statement of shareholder’s equity??
  • Book value per share has increased from 1.34 to 1.55 from FY16 to FY17. Current TTM is 3.73.
  • Morningstar ROIC TTM is -6.58 and a little higher than the last 2 FY’s
    • 5 year average Morningstar ROIC is N/A
  • TTM ROE is -6.45 and a little higher than the last 2 FY’s
    • 5 year average ROE is N/A
  • TTM FCF/sales is -151 and we can’t tell any pattern. See con note on FCF
    • 5 year average FCF/sales is N/A
  • CCC: No info on the payable period (assume the product is cheap to grow) but DIO exploded on FY2017 to 5,494 days (FY2016 and 2015 avg is about 650 days). Research online says cannabis takes up to ½ year to grow so I would need much more investigation on why inventory takes so long to turnover.
  • EV=3,312
  • EV/EBIT is -73.6
  • EV/FCF is -37.6
  • EBIT/EV (earnings yield) -1.3%
  • FCF/EV (earnings yield) -2.6%

Cons

  • Young company – only about 3 years old after name change (used to be Tweed)
  • Note only balance sheet on Morningstar has FY2015 so we need to look at 10K for data.  We cannot really tell any direction with a 2/3 year old history
  • SG&A & Other are over 163% of Revenue
  • SG&A roughly decreasing and “Other” is increasing
  • Op Income and Margin are (-) but are generally decreasing over time
  • Outstanding shares are significantly increasing over time
  • FCF is increasingly negative as both op cash flow and CapEx are also both increasingly negative
  • Not much experience with Canadian companies
  • Goodwill and intangible assets exploded on FY2017
  • Regulation laws in Canada and USA
  • They bought a lot of companies in FY2016

Pros

  • Cash exploded in FY2017
  • FY2017 Cash & Equiv – Total Liabilities = $39m
  • Book value/share is generally increasing but only for last 3 years
  • Low Debt (also reflected by the ROE and ROIC being similar numbers)
  • Revenue is increasing over time
  • STZ bought about 10% interest in WEED.  Industry took notice and WEED most likely gained some legitimacy with large companies
  • COGS is only 23% of Revenue (doesn’t take much cost to grow product?)
  • High Working Capital Ratio = 9.8 but this high typically suggests either too much inventory or not investing excess cash…

***

And since I screwed up, I’m going to begin releasing my thoughts on this company today.

The video below is part one of our exclusive discussion from one of our coaching sessions about this company.

For some reason, when I talk, the audio cuts out so below each shorter video, I’ve created a video where I’m rehashing what I told the client during our training session.

And my context with the missing sound in the above video here…

Again, as I say in the video, I’m not sure why my sound cut out and since all of my past videos are like this – we’ve just fixed the sound issue today, hopefully for good – this is how I’ve got to improvise things.

What do you think of the preliminary analysis above?  Does it make for a possible good or bad investment?  Did he miss anything in his analysis?  What are the important points in the analysis above and why? What the hell is CCC?

I’ll begin answering the above questions and more on Friday.

If you have any comments or questions, please post them in the comments section below and I’ll answer them.

I’d also love to see your preliminary analysis as well, so feel free to post these in the comments below.

And if you’d like more information about the coaching program this client is in, go to this page.

For reference, he’s in the $ 10,000, year-long program, and this is only after 1 month of coaching via nine 1-hour training sessions via Skype.

P.S.  This analysis is based on the preliminary analysis template I developed over a number of years, and after evaluating thousands of companies.  If you’d like a copy of this to do your own preliminary analysis, you can get yours for free here.

P.P.S.  I’m putting on a FREE live webinar tomorrow at 12 PM EST teaching The 3 Secrets That Have Helped Me Beat Buffett In The Stock Market, so you can possibly do the same.  If you’d like to sign up for free to view the live webinar, you can do so here.

33% Off Everything In the Value Investing Journey Shop Until Tuesday

33% Off Everything In the Value Investing Journey Shop

Value Investing Journey Logo
Value Investing Journey

While I announced the opening of the Value Investing Journey Shop last month, because I’ve been so busy I didn’t announce it to many people.

To make up for that oversight, I’m offering 33% off everything in the Value Investing Journey Shop for the next three days only.

This includes all issues and the All Past Press On Research issues package where you get all past issues for one set price.

This means for the next three days you can pick the individual issues you want most for $65 instead of the regular $97.

And that you can get All the Past Press On Research issues in one package for $628 versus a normal price of $997.

33% off all items in the Value Investing Journey Shop until Tuesday

But only until Tuesday…

I won’t do discounts often – if at all in the future – so if you’ve wanted to see my latest stock recommendation issues at a discount you better buy them now.

As of this writing, each pick is up a combined average of 50.3%.  And these picks are crushing the market.

Below are some of the highlights from all the issues…

  • The average gain for all 12 recommendations is 50.3% as of this writing…  These picks are crushing the stock market since April 2015.
  • As of this writing, the stock market has only produced a 15.8% return.
  • Meaning, my picks since April 2015 have outperformed the stock market by 34.5 percentage points.
  • Two companies I recommended grew from sub $500 million market caps to $1 billion plus market caps as of this writing.
  • One company as of this writing has now surpassed a $2 billion market cap since I recommended them.

So you’re probably wondering what you have to do to get the coupon code.  And the answer to that is nothing…

The coupon code is – 33%OffGrandOpening

The discount won’t show up until you input the code when the item is in your cart as you’re getting ready to check out.  So make sure to put the coupon code in before you hit the payment button or you’ll have to pay full price.

You can go to the Shop here and begin getting your deals now.

And this is the only place to see my most recent stock recommendation issues.

If you have any questions contact me using the Drift App – the blue icon in the bottom right third of the page – to message me through this site and I’ll get back to you right away.

Happy shopping smart value investors.

Preliminary Analysis Training Video for Client

Preliminary Analysis Training Video for Client

In this video, I made a preliminary analysis training video for a Value Investing Coaching Program client.

In the video, I take the client through everything I do on a preliminary basis.  Explain why I look at everything I do.  Explain what everything means.  And most importantly, why everything I look at is important in the context of evaluating an investment.

Below is an edited transcript of the first part of the video… You can watch the full video further below.

And one last note before getting to the transcript of the video…

The client picked this company for us to do a real-time and real-world analysis on because he was interested in this company as a potential investment.

I’d never seen or evaluated this company before meeting and talking with this client.

***

Since we’ve already talked about this company a bit on a preliminary basis, I’m doing things differently than I normally would on a preliminary analysis.

I’m also going through this slower than usual so I can explain what everything means.

The first thing I do is go to Morningstar, open up the key ratios tab and the financials tab in another page so I have those handy and ready.

The first thing I want to mention here is that I was able to find its ticker on Morningstar unlike the other day when we were talking.

It’s listed on the Frankfurt exchange on Morningstar under the ticker SGQ.

You’ll notice SGQ lists in Euros on Morningstar as well.  Make sure to always notice which currency the company lists on financial sites.

Go to Google Finance, same company but this time the company lists on the Singapore Exchange under the ticker B7K.

I’m going to reference the Google finance listing throughout but I’m going to be using the company’s financials listed on Morningstar because that’s where I do all my preliminary analysis as they have more information.

But because of this difference please keep in mind some of the numbers may be different from the ones you’re seeing.

This is because the Google finance numbers are i n Singaporean Dollars (SGD) and as mentioned above Morningstar lists its numbers in Euros.

The first difference you’ll notice is the difference in market cap of 28.9 million Euros on Morningstar and 44.4 million SGD on Google.

This is likely due to a conversion rate exchange difference and I’ll look at that later.

The next thing I do is get right into the preliminary analysis.  The same one I use for every company I evaluate…

***

To see the full real-time and real world training watch the video below.

And if you’re interested in getting your own one on one Value Investment Coaching please go to the link below.

Value Investing JourneyValue Investment Coaching Program.