2013 Portfolio Review: Cumulative Two Year Gain of 98.13%!

“Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass.” Charlie Munger

Last year I did an entire write-up on my 2012 portfolio review going over how well or poorly all the companies I wrote articles on did after I wrote those articles.  I wrote 15 total articles last year and the companies I bought led the portfolios I manage to a gain of 26.20% last year. I thought it was a pretty good first year after truly dedicating myself to value investing but I knew I could do better after eliminating some of the many mistakes I made in that year and purging the few remaining companies I still owned in those portfolios from when I bought into them when I didn’t know what I was doing.

With the help of the rising market, eliminating some of my mistakes, doing a lot of other stuff instead of investing, and getting some tips from other value investors on companies to buy, the portfolios that I manage have gained 71.93% this year as of today.

% Gain YTD
Core Molding Technologies (CMT) 88.67%
Vivendi (VIVHY) 12.39%
Paradise Inc (PARF) 42.86%
Calloway Nursery (CLWY) 100%
Brazil Fast Food Company (BOBS) 112.63%
Strattec Security (STRT) 75%
Average Gain 71.93%

 

Core Molding Technologies – I bought into this company too early last year when I gave into my impatience after months of not being able to find a company to buy into.  At the end of last year I as sitting on an 8% point loss on my investment.  With the rising market and good continued developments at the company this year it gained 88.67%  I still own CMT.

Vivendi – At year’s end last year I was sitting on a 27% gain.  This year with all the spin offs/sales at the company YTD it has gained another 12.39%.  I still plan to hold onto this company while it continues its transition to a purely media driven company.

Paradise Inc – I bought this company in March (one of only two companies I bought this year) and in that time it has had almost no news either positive or negative so I guess this companies gains of 42.86% are chalked up to the overall rise in the market.  I still own Paradise Inc.

Calloway Nursery – The other company I bought in the calendar year of 2013.  Originally I saw other value investors like OTC Adventures writing about the company and paid no mind to it.  Luckily after talking with Jeff from the Ragnar is a Pirate blog, DTEJD1997,  them sharing some information about how much the companies properties were worth, and doing my own research into the company, I decided to buy into them and I am glad that I finally paid attention to these other investors.  I have sold out of most of my position in this company at an exact double of 100%.  So far it has taken me four months to sell out of that position and it will likely take another two to sell out of the rest of it.  I still like this company and if the price goes back down substantially, all else remaining the same, I may buy back into it again.

Brazil Fast Food Company – I bought into this company last December after Red from the Red Corner Blog recommend that I take a look into them.  Again, I am thankful that Red mentioned them to me.  After a year where the company was gaining a lot after continued good results, the companies owners wanted to take it private at a ridiculous offer, which was then voted down, and the company has continued to rise after that.  The company YTD has gained 112.63%, I still own them, and plan to hold them for the long-term.

Strattec Security Corp – Another company I bought into last December.  This company had very good continued results, had some new positive developments, the stock went up very quickly and I sold out of the entire position up 75% in May.  Since then the company’s stock price has hovered around where I sold it.  Like Calloway, if STRT drops substantially, all else remaining the same, I will buy back into them because I think they are an excellent company.

Last years 26.20% gain + this years 71.93% gain means that the portfolios that I manage have cumulatively gained 98.13% (49.06% on an annual basisin two years since I started to take this seriously.  The portfolios I manage were in 40%-55% cash the entire year and are at the higher end of that range now.  Frankly I was shocked when I saw this years gain and the two-year cumulative gain since I only do an entire portfolio review once a year.

What Does The Above Mean To Me?

Not much honestly.  A two-year track record doesn’t mean much to me since I am a long-term investor.  I was also helped a lot by two recommended companies from other value investors and the overall rise in the market.  Am I glad and excited about this great start yes, but I still have a lot of work to do and at this point I think that I am only an average to above average stock picker as I have a lot of room to improve and was helped a lot by short term luck of the stock market rising a lot.

Some of the Lessons Learned This Year

  1. My extreme patience and discipline gained from dealing with my health issues helps greatly as a long-term, very strict value investor.  I did a lot of stuff not directly related to investing this year because I could only find two companies that I could buy into all year.
  2. You need to keep a record of what you do.  This was such a long year filled with great and not so great things for me that I have recently been telling everyone I only bought one company this year.  I completely forgot about the PARF and BABB articles I wrote at the beginning of this year and that I actually bought into PARF back in March along with CLWY.  Memories are not always what they seem to be.
  3. Sometimes it pays to “steal” investing ideas from others, but you still must do your own research into the company.
  4. Turn over as many rocks as possible.  While I only invested in two companies this year I have researched hundreds if not thousands of other companies and have built up a watch list of around 20 companies.  When those companies stock prices go down I will be ready to potentially buy some of them with the cash I have built up and the knowledge I have gained of those companies.
  5. Starting a business is very hard.  This is my biggest failure of the year by far and one that I hope to rectify at some point in the future.  The business my brother and I started was a complete failure from the point of gaining customers and revenue.  At this point we are not doing anything at all with the company as we overestimated the demand in our area for our product.  We learned a lot of lessons from this and we hope to start a successful business in the future.
  6. Writing a book is very hard.  Most of my year (the better part of 10 months) was spent writing, editing, researching, etc for the book.  It was well worth it as it has provided some for my family, for two needy families Christmas presents, I learned an enormous amount, and it has hopefully helped newer investors learn this craft faster.
  7. It obviously pays to buy into a few great companies and then sit on your ass and be patient.

Goals For This Year

  1. Continue to learn something every day.
  2. Improve in some way every day.
  3. Turn over more rocks.
  4. Read more.
  5. Write more.

I hope you all had a great year, thank you all so much for all the conversations, reading this blog, buying my book, and I look forward to talking with you all more and getting back to writing more articles for the blog in this coming new year.

 

An Update, New Translation Page, and Links

As you might have noticed at the top of the page is now a translation page where you can translate the entire blog into many different languages.  I found something similar to this a few days ago but could not get it to work on the blog so I enlisted the help of my brother and he got the translation page working, thanks a lot Kev.  This also means that the short-lived Mandarin Value Investing Journey is also not now needed and will be going away.  I am sure the 20 of you who visited the mostly untranslated site will miss it dearly :).

A quick update on where I am at with the process of my article series.  I have now finished up the first two articles of the series and as you know I had planned to write articles on one or two more companies and then do a conclusion article.  Two of the companies I was planning on writing articles on I have been asked not to by the person who recommended them to me because he is planning on writing articles about them.  I am still going to read those companies annual reports and other filings but will not be writing articles about them so this has turned into a three-part series covering the two companies I have already written articles about and the conclusion article where I decide which of them to buy.  I will hopefully have the whole series posted as soon as possible.

“Things do not happen–they are brought about by careful planning, diligence, application, and direction.”George Mecherle, Founder of State Farm Insurance.

Valueprax-This One Is Personal.

25iq.com-Charlie Munger On The Importance Of Worldly Wisdom And Consistently Not Being Stupid.

CP-Africa.com-Meet 31 Year Old Ashish Thakkar-Africa’s Youngest Billionaire.

OTC Adventures-International Wire Group Is Cheap, But Is It Safe (ITWG)

Valuewalk-Baupost Group’s Seth Klarman Sees “50 Shades Of Value” In The Market.

Valueinvestingblog.net-CASA Holdings and Fiamma Holdings.

CSinvesting-A Reader’s Question On Case Studies.

Santangel’s Review-Benjamin Graham On Staying Small.

Motley Fool-Charlie Munger Info From A Board Poster.

Valueprax-Notes-Nintendo Back In The Saddle?

CSInvesting-Valuation Case Study HVAC.

OTC Adventures-Value Investing Strategy and Unlisted Securities Part 2.

CSInvesting-ValueUncovered Philosophy; Treat Everything As A Case Study.

Wexboy-2013: The Great Irish Share Valuation Project Part 2.

Credit Bubble Stocks-Horizon Kinetics, Owner Operators, and the Predictability Arb.

Catching Up On Some More Links

Farnam Street-The World Is Much More Interesting Than Any One Discipline.

Wexboy-Tetragon Ready To Be A Star.

Sahara Investing-The Luxury Goods Market.

Oddball Stocks-Thoughts On Quantative Value Investing.

Valueinvestingblog.net-Investing In Japan: Late To The Party.

Valuewalk-Insurance Companies, Where Buybacks Are Key: Travelers.

Farnam Street-Mastery.

OTC Adventures-Value Investing Strategy And Unlisted Securities Part 1.

Whopper Investments-The Best Values Are Over The Counter Stocks So Is $OTCM A Great Value Too?

Ragnar Is A Pirate-Changing 13D’s At Trinity Place Holdings.

The Aleph Blog-On Insurance Investing Part 2.

Quotations Page-Persistence Quotes, my favorite is the Calvin Coolidge One:

Nothing in the world can take the place of Persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘Press On’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.

Absoutely love that quote.

Mises.org-Cartman Shrugged: The Invisible Gnomes and The Invisible Hand In South Park.

CSInvesting-The Secret To Investing Success (Munger Tip).

Valueconferences.com-Adib Motiwala: Your Instructor At Small Cap Investing Summit 2013, hour long interview.

Good Read About Valuations For The Week

Motley Fool-Monish Pabrai’s Lunch With Buffett and Munger.

Value Investing Blog-Alpha Pro Tech And The Value Of Optionality.

Cant Eat Value-Why You’re Undervaluing Good Capital Allocation.

Student Of Value-Investment Analysis Of Quality Products $QPDC The Mysterious.

Zero Hedge-Guest Post: A Short Lesson In Bad Decision Making.

The Daily Beast-Don’t Go To Business School!

Wexboy-The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part 1).

Oddball Stocks-CIBL is Undervalued Again, Is The Valuation Gap Enough?

Business Insider-Vitaliy Katsenelson Presentation On Why The Market Will Move Sideways For Another Decade.

Distressed Debt Investing-The High Yield Market “Is Completely Out Of Control”.

Philip Beeching-Why Companies Fail–The Rise And Fall of HMV.

Value Walk-Charlie Munger And The Art Of Stock Picking.

Sahara Investing-The Hour Glass.

OTC Adventures-Great Lakes Aviation Is Not Your Typical Airline $GLUX.

Grizzly Rock Capital-Why Selling Methodology Differs For Average Versus Great Companies.

Seraphin Group-When Do I Sell Stocks? Drawing Wisdom From Buffett To Zuckerberg.

CS Investing-Reading On Moats And Competitive Advantages.

Whopper Investments-Why Is Buying A Rising Stock So Hard?

Guru Focus-Geoff Gannon On How To Learn Everything You Need To Know About A Stock.

25iq.com-Charlie Munger On Investment Concentration Versus Diversification.

Weekend Reading Links About Valuations

I have just finished up my latest article and only need to proofread a bit more and I plan on posting it on Monday.  Until then I hope you enjoy the links.

Oddball Stocks: Argo, an Undervalued Asset Manager With Potential Catalysts.

Wexboy: Another Assault on Fortress.

Theodor Tonca: Bank Analysis Template.

Whopper Investments: Do Bullish Bloggers Have Negative Consequences?

Wexboy: Heading Into 2013.

OTC Adventures: Quality Products Inc, QPDC.

Walrus Value: Lance Armstrong And Why Superior Corporate Results Deserve Skepticism.

Ragnar Is A Pirate: Where Food Comes From, WFCF.

Hardcore Value: Vintage Buffett On Mistakes.

Charlotte Observer: Charlotte Student Launches Hedge Fund.

Sahara Investing: Kingsmen Creatives.

The Globe and Mail: Scary Beats Safe In Realm of Cheap Stocks.

Motiwala Capital: Q4 2012 Letter to Clients.

Oddball Stocks: How I Passed On Costar.

OTC Adventures: Tropicana Entertainment Is The Cheapest US Casino Operator.