In post one of this series on Dole and their competitors here, I got into a valuation of Dole and the potential spin off that could unlock their value.
In my next two posts I will detail two of Doles biggest competitors, first Chiquita and then Fresh Del Monte, where I will value both of the companies and detail their businesses.
In the fourth post of this series I will attempt to determine if a merger between any of the three companies should happen, and what I think would be the best options. I will go over the margins of each company and try to determine if any of the three have any sustainable competitive advantages. I will also put forth my thesis of which one, if any, would be a good long term buy without the possibility of a spin off or merger from any of the companies.
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I will start with the valuations of Chiquita (CQB), and then get into the details and analysis a bit of their company.
Chiquita Brands International is a leading international marketer and distributor of high-quality fresh and value-added food products from energy-rich Chiquita® bananas and complimentary fruits to nutritious blends of convenient green salads. Description is taken from their website. They do business under the Chiquita and Fresh Express premium brands and other related trademarks and operate in nearly 70 countries worldwide. For further information please refer to their website.
Both Chiquita (CQB) valuations were done on 6-20-2012. All numbers are in millions of US dollars, except per share information, unless otherwise noted. Valuations done using March 2012 10Q and 2011 10K.
These valuations are done by me, using my estimates, and are not a recommendation for you to buy the stock. Do your own homework.
| Assets: | Book Value: | Reproduction Value: | |||
| Current Assets | |||||
| Cash | 41 | 41 | |||
| Marketable Securities | 0 | 0 | |||
| Accounts Receivable (Net) | 267 | 190 Learn How To Find And Evaluate Great Stocks Better Than The Pros - In Only Weeks - Click Here To Learn More About Our Value Investing Masterclass. | |||
| Inventories | 238 | 119 | |||
| Prepaid Expenses | 43 | 20 | |||
| Other Current Assets | 111 | 44 | |||
| Total Current Assets | 700 | 414 | |||
| PP&E Net | 370 | 185 | |||
| Goodwill | 177 | 77 | |||
| Intangible Assets | 555 | 166.5 | |||
| Total Assets | 1802 | 842.5 | |||
- Total Shares are 46
Reproduction Value:
- With IA: 842/46=$18.32 per share.
- Without IA: 676/46=$14.70 per share.
Current Price is $4.84 per share.
Second Valuation:
- Cash and Cash equivalents of 41
- Number of shares are 46
- Total Current liabilities are 383
Short term investments of 0 + cash and cash equivalents of 41- current liabilities of 383=-342
- -342/46=-$7.43 in net cash per share.
Chiquita has a trailing twelve month EBIT of 25.
5X, 10X, and 14X EBIT.
- 5X25=125+41=166.
- 10X25=250+41=291
- 14X25=350+41=391
- 166/46=$3.61 per share.
- 291/46=$6.33 per share.
- 391/46=$8.50 per share.
Current share price is $4.84 per share.
Being an extremely conservative investor I usually use the lowest valuation number I get and use that one as what the company should be valued at. So not only are they currently overvalued with my low estimate at $3.61, there is even less margin of safety due to the -$7.43 in net cash per share. Even if I used the $8.50 number as my estimate of value, subtracting the negative net cash per share only leaves you at $1.07 per share.
Enterprise Value, which is taken from Yahoo Finance is currently 756.72 million.
I adjusted, and added to their enterprise value because they have a lot of obligations over the next few years that aren’t counted in the regular debt number.
To their enterprise value I added TOTAL operating leases, pension, and purchase commitments.
Adjusting their enterprise value is 756.72+2392=3148.72
- Unadjusted EV/EBIT=30.27
- Adjusted EV/EBIT=125.95
Both numbers are incredibly high, especially as you compare them to Dole and Chiquita.
On page 9 of Chiquita’s 2011 10K they state total debt outstanding is at $572.5 million. Page 10 is where they list the other “contractual obligations” with the total obligations being $3,167 million.
This is another reason why you MUST read annual and quarterly reports. When I first started I would have never known about those other obligations. I would have taken the $572.5 million number and compared that to Dole’s debt and thought that Chiquita was in a much better position.
With the above information I will not be buying into Chiquita at this time.
In my next post, the third of the series, I will value and talk about Fresh Del Monte’s (FDP) operations.
In the fourth and final posting in this series I will look into Dole’s numbers again to see if I missed any of their contractual obligations. I will also compare all three companies margins and decide if any of the three companies meet my criteria for a long term value hold, without any spin off or merger.